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Showing posts from August, 2020

The Two Envelopes- A Simple Yet Unsolved Paradox

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Paradoxes have been confounding minds since Aristotle. It is derived from the Geek word “paradoxon” meaning contrary to expectation. Ever been confused by a Paradox? Well not surprising at all. Paradox is a statement that contradicts itself or has the ability to be both true and untrue at the same time.  For example – ‘This Statement is A Lie’ is one of the most famous paradoxes because it is so simple. These five simple words are self- contradictory: if a statement is true, then it’s a lie, which means it’s not true. But if it’s not true, then it’s a lie, which makes it true.   Paradoxes are considered as reasonable; they might not completely make sense to a person but upon consideration that we realize there is self- defeating logic.   The two-envelope problem is yet again a conundrum in the decision-making theory. It has been subjected to a long-standing debate. It is a counterintuitive problem of decision making between two states in the presence of a start uncertai...

The 2001 US Recession- What Makes it Different?

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  "T here are a lot of things you can say about the Bush Tax Cuts, but you can't say they didn't work."   - Phil Gramm Economists describe a recession as an over-all decline in economic activity that leads to a contraction in the business cycle. Generally, two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth is termed as a recession, and as history points out- a prolonged recession has severe adverse effects on the livelihoods of people across all sectors of the economy, due to high unemployment rates, fall in income, increase in poverty and numerous other effects.  Thus, it becomes essential that the government and central bank enforce effective stabilization policies to resolve the crisis. The United States faced a recession in 2001, as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had negative growth for the first 3 quarters, starting in the month of March and ending in December. (NBER, 2003) Quarterly U.S Real GDP Growth Rate (1999-2002) Source:  U.S....